My prediction is… Obama wins second term

Posted on November 4, 2012

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President Barack Obama will be re-elected to a second term by squeaking out a popular vote victory with a margin of 2.5%, while surging to an electoral college romp – 303 for Obama/Biden vs. 235 for Romney/Ryan.

The Popular Vote: While the Romney camp has promoted Mittmentum ad nauseum, the national polls have not borne that out… especially in the last week. The Pew Research poll released yesterday shows Obama up 3 (above the 2.2% margin of error), and when combined with the last eight consecutive polls where Obama hasn’t trailed, this indicates to me that Obama is in good position to win the popular vote.

Swing-states: Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia and Iowa will all break for the President. Romney will pick up Florida and North Carolina. Given how close this race has been since Romney’s surge after the Denver debate, my prediction may seem a bit optimistic for the President. I don’t think it is and this is why.

Looking at the averages of all of the non-crazy person polls, aggregated by Real Clear Politics, Obama has a quantifiable advantage. Obama leads in Pennsylvania (3.9%), Ohio (2.8%), Michigan (3.8%), Wisconsin (4.2%), Iowa (3.0%), Colorado (0.6% – and trending in Obama’s favor), Nevada (2.8%), and New Hampshire (1.5%). This leaves Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. Virginia shows a very narrow Romney edge (0.3%) but Obama’s been surging the past week and has been up by 1-2% in the two most recent Virginia polls. I expect Obama to win a narrow victory in Virginia.

Florida has had major voting issues that began with Governor Scott drastically reducing voting hours resulting in ridiculously long lines at the polls. This mayhem, combined with an RCP lead of 1.4% for Gov. Romney, including leading in four of the last five polls indicate to me that Romney should gain the state’s 29 electoral votes. Romney has had a consistent lead in North Carolina polling during this campaign including an RCP lead of 3.8%. While Obama has closed the gap, I don’t think it will be enough to win the Tarheel state.

In all, I anticipate Obama to be declared the winner on Tuesday night (let’s say – 11:37 p.m. ET) without the need for a recount, and no electoral college/popular vote split.

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Posted in: Politics